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可惜了!2019年廣東GDP預計低于萬億美元,未超過韓國、俄羅斯
2020-01-06 22:44  www.taobaomir.com

從當前公開的部分經濟數據來看,2019年廣東省經濟繼續保持平穩增長。其中,前11個月,廣東實現社會消費品零售總額億元,同比增長%;前11個月,廣東規模以上民營工業企業實現增加值億元,同比增長%。

From the current public part of the economic data, Guangdong Province's economy continued to maintain steady growth in 2019. Among them, in the first 11 months, Guangdong achieved a total retail sales of consumer goods of 100 million yuan, an increase of% over the same period last year; in the first 11 months, the added value of private industrial enterprises above Guangdong scale was 100 million yuan, an increase of% over the same period last year.

前11個月,廣東完成固定資產投資同比增長%,連續17個月保持兩位數增長;前10個月,廣東規模以上服務業實現營業收入億元,增長%……。由此可見,2019年全年,廣東省的經濟增長依然不會太低。

In the first 11 months, Guangdong completed a year-on-year increase of% in fixed assets investment, and maintained double-digit growth for 17 consecutive months. In the first 10 months, Guangdong's service sector over the scale achieved revenue of 100 million yuan, up %…… 。 Thus, Guangdong's economic growth will still not be too low throughout 2019.

在2019年11月,國家統計局公布了“全國第四次經濟普查”的結果,將2018年中國的GDP提升到919281億元人民幣,上調了18972億元,增幅為%。但可惜的是,并未同時公布各省市的GDP上調情況。

In November 2019, the National Bureau of Statistics released the results of the fourth National Economic Census, boosting China's GDP in 2018 to 91928.1 billion yuan, an increase of 1897.2 billion yuan, or%. Unfortunately, there are no simultaneous increases in GDP across the provinces and municipalities.

我們假設,廣東省的經濟上調比例與全國大體一致,即也上調%,那2018年廣東省的新GDP就是在舊GDP基礎之上增加%——由初值的97278億元人民幣,上升為99320億元人民幣。

We assume that the rate of economic growth in Guangdong is roughly the same as that in the country, i.e., up%, and that in 2018 the province's new GDP was increased by% on top of its old GDP – up from Rmb972.78bn to Rmb9932bn from its initial value.

按照2019年前三季度經濟實際增速(%)、名義增速(%)推算,2019年全年廣東省的名義GDP約為108538億元人民幣(萬億元人民幣)——按照2019年全年人民幣與美元的平均匯率折算約為萬億美元。

Based on real (%) and nominal (%) growth in the first three quarters of 2019, Guangdong's nominal GDP for the full year of 2019 is about Rmb10,835.3 billion (trillion yuan)– translated at an average exchange rate of about $trillion for the full year of 2019 against the dollar.

按照IMF的預測,2019年全年,俄羅斯的GDP預計為萬億美元,繼續在全球排在第11名;按IMF的預測,在2019年韓國以萬億美元——僅僅比俄羅斯低100億美元左右,排在全球第12名。

For the full year of 2019, Russia's GDP is expected to be $UStrillion, continuing to rank 11th globally, according to the IMF's forecast, and South Korea at $UStrillion in 2019- only about $US10 billion lower than Russia, ranking 12th globally, according to the IMF.

按此推算,2019年中國廣東省的GDP要再次低于韓國、俄羅斯,未能實現趕超。但差距不大,預計這個追趕任務要延遲到2020年才能實現了。

According to this calculation, China's Guangdong province's GDP in 2019 will again be lower than that of South Korea and Russia, failing to catch up. But the gap is small and the catch-up is expected to be delayed until 2020.

雖然經濟總量,廣東省在2019年仍未實現趕超,排序是俄羅斯、韓國、廣東省,但人均GDP的排序卻正好相反——是韓國、廣東省、俄羅斯。數據顯示,在2018年的時候,韓國的人均GDP就超過了萬美元。

While Guangdong's economy has yet to catch up in 2019, ranking Russia, South Korea, and Guangdong provinces, per capita GDP ranks the opposite – South Korea, Guangdong, and Russia. South Korea's GDP per capita exceeded $10,000 in 2018, according to the data.

俄羅斯在2018年的人均GDP是萬美元。2019年由于盧布貶值,其人均GDP預計要略微下降為萬美元左右。咱們中國的廣東省在2018年的時候,人均GDP就超過了萬美元,預計今年不低于萬美元。

Russia's per capita GDP in 2018 is $10,000. Per capita GDP is expected to fall slightly to around $10,000 in 2019 as the ruble depreciates. China's Guangdong Province in 2018, per capita GDP exceeded $10,000, is expected to be no less than $10,000 this year.